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November 2008

If you are still working full time in the removals trade, well done you!

We hear on a daily basis of our mates in the estate agency business going under, and they come before us in the chain. Trade is NOT going to improve for the next year or so and that's a fact. Companies who have relied on Polish labour are now also facing the loss of staff on mass as they return home. National groups have cut back as far as they dare, closing depots, utilising full timers, own depots and cutting back on contracting out jobs.

If you are finding things difficult, YOU are not alone. Every sector of our trade is suffering.

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On the bright side the cost of crude oil is half the price it was on the markets last year! Shame the price on the forecourt is still so high. Never mind, I am sure my pension scheme was clever enough to have all my dough invested in BP or Shell! No, I am sure my pension and savings have been "punted" on VW!

As things stand today Harry Rednapp would get my vote as Chancellor (our economy needs Harry Houdini).

Does anybody know what our Queen has been doing? What has the whole Royal family been doing? We need our Royals to step up to the plate and realy start working for us. We don't need Ministers visiting here, there and everywhere. We need ALL our Royals visiting the Middle east, Asia and the Americas and promoting our country. We need our Royals to host event after event after event, overseas and here in the UK now.

My home town was proud to recieve our troups from 2 Para back from Afganistan and it would have been fitting for the "Boss" to have shown her face. God bless those that didn't make it back, say hello to my Mum.

I have no agenda here, but it scares me (1 November at 21.00 hrs GMT) if Lewis wins the Grand Prix Championship the result will be pushed in our and the American public's face as " Lewis, the first black man to win the championship" and that's  a big deal around the world. Next Barrack Osama should be voted in as President of the US but will the American public run scared?.

After having to hear time and time again, on all news and current affair channels about Ross and Brand I feel sorry for them that the weeks "news" was so weak. But was it? The economy's downturn being reported time after time on every news programme drove us all into a hole. What else "headline wise" was a story? What else did "we want" to hear about? Who will be picked on next?

Franklin D. Roosevelt as I remember from my limited history lessons resurected the US from the great depression by investing heavily in the infrastructure of the US, building and investing heavily in dams, roads and railways. Gordon Brown should be supported if he tries to do the same. The only other historical alternative would be a war and nobody can be arsed with another war (unless we win back our North Antlantic fishing from Iceland!).

What to buy? and what to sell?

Buy: The pound and Euros, UK shares (they will not fall any lower). UK Bank's are currently massivly underpriced and they "can't lose".

Sell: Dollars (scary short term) Gold, Oil, silver. Middle east and Asian shares (They will feel our depression over the next month with a drop in orders from us and the US)

October 2008

"We are heading for a recession" states the Governor of the Bank of England and our Prime Minister. NO SHIT!

We could of all told YOU that months ago. I wander how long it will be before we have Mandy Camp-bell as Chancellor of the Exchequer!

Oh dear what has gone wrong? My company had to lay off 5 of the best, most hardworking removals men I have worked with. We have over the year lost some 70% of our total workforce and we are a forward looking company!

If people aint buying, people aint moving. If people aint moving we are all deep in it!!!!

My advice, expand your offer, add value. Each customer you do have needs services over and above the services your removals company offer.

What will they need? Think about it a little, set yourself up in that business and offer additional services your own customers want and you may just survive.

Have you noticed that "lock outs" while awaiting keys being released appear to be a thing of the past.

Here goes in this months predictions:

What to buy: Bikes, silver (Gold's to high) Pawn-brokers (Albermarle & Bond Pawnbrokers plc etc)

What to sell: Any motor group PLC, Pub and hotel chains, Any shares in UK only companies.

Hold on tight, we are in for a really scary 3-6 months ahead.

September 2008

With the summer season coming to an end soon and with no end to the depression in the market in sight I really worry about the future of the removals industry as we know it.

Recently we have booked jobs our local competitors would have "won" a while ago, but on speaking to the clients I have found that some companies simply don't have the manpower any more!

On the up side it's nice to see the price of diesel at the pumps falling. I wonder how many firms have signed up to use fuel cards at a fixed rate of £1.23 for a year "guaranteed" as recently offered to us! I wish a driver of ours who managed to find diesel at £1.35 per ltr had one of those cards with him when he filled up!

Whats the answer? how has your company survived? What advice would you offer to others? Click here.

Can anybody explain how this windfall tax thing works? What is a windfall tax? Is it when a Government sells a profitable asset (we all already own) to the masses. When the masses then sell those shares at a profit to the banks, pension funds and long term investors and make a profit and that business then makes a very healthy profit?

I am the first to complain about the high price of fuel etc, but the sane answer is not to punish any sector of our "free trading economy" by simply stating "oh the price of gas is so high" or "oh the price of electricity is so high" lets invent another tax that punishes these sectors of our economy.

If you are in business and your whole sector is doing well and making a profit "well done you."

I and everybody else can enter your sector of "our free market" at any time and do just as well but we decided not to. Well done you if you did!

In business and the rules must be the same for us all. If I made and sold blue paint and the profit in blue paint became massive, then as far as I can see happy days blue paint manufacturers and sellers!.......

Having suggested some months ago the "summer holiday" for stamp duty I think the Government have again missed the point I was making in June. The reduction in stamp duty should have been for a very short period to stimulate the economy NOW. By having a whole year (as introduced a few days ago) to take up the "special offer" in reduced stamp duty why would anybody take the risk right now and not continue to wait? would a shop having a "sale" advertise it was going to last for a whole year? No. The Government got it wrong again!

Banks and building societies are now complaining of losses and drops in profit, but with the masses of returned direct debits, bounced cheques and late payment penalties, I think once again they are set for record profits. 

I feel more and more confident in predicting:

Stocks and shares to keep: Gold and silver. Shares in Iceland, Poundland, Center Parcs, British bike manufactures.

Start worrying big time about: Bradford and Bingley, W H Smith, BA and Top end high street retailers and motor manufacturers.

Please submit your thoughts, suggestions and ideas here.

August 2008

It's a sad start to the month for me as a good friend lost his estate agency business this week!

The mini boom reported in viewings last month simply didn't lead to anything and will not until the market regains confidence.

I wonder what my local town council is going to do with all the town centre properties that only have planning for use as offices! Without banks. building societies and estate agents wanting high street locations, who else (non retail) needs the High Street? Why do town councils continue to restrict trade by insisting that certain properties within the town centre are only suitable for services and not retail! Watch out for many prime, town center commercial properties being boarded up and your town center looking like a ghost town!

Having pointed out the current plight of the government some months ago and being the first to suggest a summer break from stamp duty etc I now feel a little more confident in predicting the future:

This month I expect: To hear lots of hard luck stories from the banking community, insurers and the like.

We will hear of high street retailers suffering with a lack of trade.

We will lose some high street names to the receivers and we will continue to be baffled as to the high price of fuel at the pump and the fall in the price of a barrel of oil.

We will see the Prime Minister coming under more pressure as the recession begins to bite.

Demand for council housing will hit an all time high.

With the lack of confidence in our Governments, the Dollar, Pound and Euro will all fall dramatically and the value of gold will increase in value by at least 15-20%.

Ronaldo will start the season with Man U, but things will blow up after a few disappointing appearances, he will be dropped, he will huff, puff and blow his own house down and Fergie will say enoughs enough on yer bike.

Trade at the moment is sustainable for most removal companies with the very welcome six week school summer holiday "rush". You may wonder why "rush"? Well I remember the days when our largest mover charged a hefty surcharge for moves during the holidays, I wonder if they are this year! (are they?)

During any recession the worst to suffer are the working people. real people and whole families are worried about being able to pay this weeks household bills.

Iceland is not only a country were Jeremy or Henrietta go for a winter visit, Iceland's were mum's gone to buy this weeks groceries for the family.

If my company announced it was going to increase it's charges by 2p, £50 or £100 on a certain date and then announced we would not carry out the increased charges, would we expect our customers to be pleased? would our customers be pleased? No.

If we advertised the former in the press would the Advertising Standards Agency be happy? Removals company offer x percent off. Off what? The increase in fuel duty was never on the cards.

The Government and it's many advisor's decided, being in charge of our economy and the economy of the world that it would be "prudent" to increase the duty on fuel and now have the gaul to fanfare it's postponement.

Why can't my local authority, county or even the whole country appoint a supremo to run the them for a year on a rolling contract like a football club, if he's crap we could sack him, if he is successful and does well in his first year we could offer him a longer contract.

If a better "manager" becomes available our town could negotiate behind closed doors with them and hey presto Sir Alex Ferguson is running the town. Can you imagine the headlines: City boss moves to town!

What I am getting at is this: We are all judged on a daily-weekly-monthly basis, if we fail a little in the first week we get a slap on the wrist, if we fail in the second week we get a telling off, but if we fail in the next month we are out!

Why can't our local authority, our County or the whole Country be ran by an appointed person that is answerable to the public in the same way? If we are not happy, politicians you are not doing your job. We the public are your employers and we should have the right to appoint you and your team and if we are not pleased with what you are doing, you're out. Not in four years or when it suits you, but today!

WE ARE NOT AMUSED!

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July 2008

As usual we find ourselves weeks if not months ahead of the rest of the economy and our business could be used as a fair indicator as to the confidence of the nation in general.

As indicated some months ago here on this site, the building trade is now suffering terribly, but it has not reached its lowest point just yet, trade suppliers and the like are reporting the same.

The good news is that local estate agents are now reporting a doubling of interest in property's and viewings up by 50% with offers of up to 12% off the asking prices being accepted. The rental sector is also reporting an increase in trade as prospective buyers are deciding to hold off committing to buying right now and looking to rent until the market becomes more secure.

With the summer holidays on the horizon those of us who have survived this far may have a steady if not a bumper six to eight week period ahead.

Have you seen  the prices removals trucks are fetching on Ebay? I saw a very tidy 7.5 t truck with rear & side loading that sold for £2300, my wifes runaround cost more! is now the time to invest in vehicular stock?

I have noticed a change in the language of the fuel protesters who are now asking for a rebate on their fuel.
How will this be implemented fairly? my guess would be that holders of an operators licence will be entitled to claim a rebate on a quarterly basis against fuel purchased in the UK.

Don't panic if you have a small fleet of smaller vehicles such as Lutons and Transits, as I wrote earlier larger vehicles are fetching no money on Ebay and operators licences are easy to obtain if not simply costly.

I can see a black market in fuel receipt's becoming prevalent and vehicles being broken into not for the sat nav or the stereo but for the diesel receipts!

Why oh why cant this now bloody stupid government reduce duty it receives on fuel in line with it's own figures from last year? and to have the "cheek" to "consider" not increasing fuel duty in the autumn as announced in the last budget.

Get a grip on reality, the cost to the Nation is too high, the "cost" to the Labour Goverment will be too high. Granted the cost of oil has increased worldwide, and so has the value of the black stuff we pump out of the North sea on a daily basis. Quid pro quo!

Here's this months prediction of the future:

Gordon Brown is not thick, contrary too his decisions as prime minister and recent U-turns he learnt an awful lot under Tony Blair and like the opportunist he has become he is now waiting for shoots of recovery.
He will sack poor old Alistair Darling and announce to the public the the "prudent man" is back in charge of finance and that he will "personally" steer the Nation back to recovery, just in time for the next election, Hoorah!!!

Who is going to fall for it? Not us Mr Brown.

(come on, this site should not be all about my opinions, contribute, have your say, get it off your chest)

Contribute here: Blog

Feeling depressed and fed up? please don't. The football season will be upon us real soon! I can't get into the current drab and boring offering of tennis and this that and the other offerings of cricket and rugby league!

What we all want to know is who Ronaldo and Lampard are going to play for? the fun will increase, as will the rumours. Will Hull go straight back down along with Paul Inces Blackburn? will Portsmouth continue to impress or will the rest have worked out a winning strategy?

It's summer, we all feel good, please bring back our beloved football, NOW, Please.

June 2008

Dear Gordon Brown.

You have been a FANTASTIC chancellor under Tony Blair (who politically, was inept) but who read the nation and the feelings and the spirit of the nation. Reactionary possibly, but at least he and his advisors could respond to the situation on a daily basis. We need a strong, public, prime minister who can give us confidence and a little cheer, Mr Brown we need you to become public, we need YOU to reassure us that you have your finger on the pulse.

Fuel protests cannot be ignored,  What hard working British people care about is the current threat to OUR economy and jobs. The current threat is not terrorism but week leadership!

You are at your best when you are riled. Bang on a few desks and wake the rest of our government, let us and the rest of the world know who's in charge and that things are being done before its too late for us and you!

Be strong, be positive, be forceful, be a great prime minister. Please!!!!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

As we appear to have 2-3 months on the rest of the UK economy let's buy into the dream and make some cash:

What stocks & shares to buy: Anything Asian or gold, anything "green". British tourism, seaside hotels, holiday and short break cottages, caravan parks, Blacks and Milletts, Shell, BP, Texaco etc

What to sell: Any company not expanding into or trading in the far east, any company supplying the UK building industry (Pilkingtons, JCB, Tarmac etc). Luxury car boat & plane manufacturers. Airlines, 5 star hotels. 2 Bed Flats.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Good news! it's the height of the moving season, well it should be, but with the housing market depressed as it is at the moment not a lot appears to be happening other than The BAR being recognised by the OFT.

Most are blaiming the cost of fuel for the problems in our industry but I no longer agree. I would support any protest if my competitors could purchase fuel cheaper than I could, but they cant! it's an even playing field. As trade becomes more difficult to find we will find the cowboy outfits are not attracted to the industry and realistic operators who must cover all their costs will begin to charge realistic prices.

Why some companies believe its down to them to absorb the cost of fuel increases is the real problem.

If we all increased our charges in line with the increased in fuel costs we would create inflation, inflation is a government buster and our government would have to act. The reason we aren't increasing our charges is becouse of strong competition in our business owing to a general lack of trade.

Our trade needs on a buoyant housing market and the housing market and our economy as a whole is depressed along with most of the owners of once prosperous removals businesses.

Many investors in the property market were badly advised and based on statistics showing an ever increasing value of property many have invested in buy to let property's.

The problem is these buy to let property's have flooded the market and there aren't the tenants around to take up the rentals, flats and small houses are being rented at a loss or unoccupied and "landlord's" are losing both in there "investments"and in some cases there own homes which were used as guarantees on there second mortgages!

As predicted here in our April update, we are now hearing of developments being cancelled and builders being laid off as the major developers are finding it difficult offloading the stock they already have.

Speaking to people in the building trade most of the work being carried out at the moment is basic groundwork, enabling the developers to maintain planning permission on sites as work has commenced.

A new game has arisen called spot the bricky! 0 points if he's preparing ground, 1 point for a bricky carrying out a repair, 2 points if he's building an extension and 3 points if he's working on a new build. Have a look around your town, see if you can amass 10 points in a day!

We have noticed a dramatic change in the removals industry. Long established BAR member removals companies offering man and van services, charging extra for the use of equipment such as sofa bags or mattress covers and "allowing" customers the use of piano trolleys! I guess that having laid off the majority of there portering staff they really have little alternative if they want to remain in business.

I have never studied economics and I don't claim to know much when it comes down to politics or finance but from a simple removal man's point of view why cant?:

The Government could stimulate the whole property market by offering a 3 month period free of Stamp duty on all property transactions.

This would stimulate the economy as a whole, it would offer those buy to let investors an opportunity to free themselves of the nooses around there necks and would be a great incentive for those sitting on the fence waiting for "the right time" to buy there first homes to buy as well as enabling developers to realise some profit (which would be taxed) enabling them to at least complete the developments they have already started.

They could advertise that "Britain's having a summer sale" for very little of there own investment.

How much may this all cost? I haven't a Scooby, but I know that at the moment with hardly any movement in the market there isn't a lot in it for the revenue as it is!

Maybe such a bold move would encourage overseas investors into our property market who we could then hammer with some kind of non-dom tax scheme! and it would work out cheaper than supporting bank after bank after bank!

As for housing in general the idea of council housing appears to have been lost and taken over by charitable housing associations with waiting lists ten miles long and the good old building society has now been converted to a bank.

People need houses and houses need people, they need to be paid for but renting takes time to turn a profit. As things stand at the moment a tenant has little protection when it comes down to renting from a private landlord as he can claim after a period of only six months or so that he needs to sell the property or that he needs it for a member of his family etc and any tenant can up sticks when the tenancy period is over, not a good long term solution for anybody especially the worried bankers looking for a good, safe and profitable "punt"

So whats the plan I hear you ask?

Its very simple, many investors have lost out buy going it alone and struggling when they have lost there tenants or found it impossible to sell there property and retrieve any investment to do other things. My idea is a bit like the LLoyd's names idea, investors buy into a scheme which manages a large portfolio of property, from one bedroom flats to large family houses and even farms and country estates.

Each member of the scheme can buy shares which can be bought or sold on the open market. The funds raised are invested across the whole property sector reducing the risk of a downturn in any one particular area and an annual dividend could be paid out equally between investors.

For the tenants they are offered secure, transferable tenancy agreements of say 1,5,10 or even 20 years and the security of not having a private landlord wishing to cash in and sell there home from under there feet! They could exchange property freely from one area to another and could up or downsize when necessary.

I guess I believe the housing market will recover and property prices will increase in time, but will the recovery be "in time"!!!!!!

Any comments? please submit your ideas here on our blog.

May 2008

Is there anybody out there? According to recent reports and in the papers with have "lost" 2-3 thousand mates!

Thats Dave's, Mark's, Steve's and Stephens, Big Ricks, Fat Brian's, Slim Jim's and all the other hard working guys YOU have "trusted" when you were under a wardrobe or piano and shared your working life with.

Have you not noticed how few of your companies competitors you now see on the road?

Established, respected and well run removals companies are going to the wall.

Our trades not feeling any "pinch" our trades feeling a horse bite!

Chin up! at least your customers appreciate the cost's, skill and hard work involved in loading, transporting and repositioning their possessions.

The cost of fuel, advertising, maintaining our vehicles, insurance, trade memberships, equipment, training, holiday pay, National insurance, sick pay, maternity pay, landline and mobile phone bills have all increased.

Have your companies charges increased in relation to your new costs? No!

Anybody out there daft enough to invest in the removals industry? (Sorry TEAM investors) hang on a minute, these investors are not daft, so what do they know what I obviously don't? I have had sleepless nights working on this and I think I've cracked it!

Today oil has reached $135 per barrel and is forecast to reach $350 + per barrel by the end of the 2010.

The sooner it reaches $500 per barrel the better for us and heres why:

90% of our customers commute to and from work by either car, bus or train and the cost is going to soar.

The average commuter from my area pays around £900 per year for a season ticket to and from London which will increase to around 2k next year and he will realise his ticket will cost around £3000 per year within the next 2 years.

Faced with a cost of 3k plus to commute to and from "the smoke" Jo public will not be able to afford to live out of town and will be "forced" to move "back" into town.

Removals companies based in commuter towns like Reading, Guildford,  Luton, Stevenage, Harlow Chelmsford, Colchester, Southend and Milton Keynes will all see a massive increase in business.

In the north businesses in Solihull, Chesterfield, Mansfield, Beverley, Harrogate, Bathgate and Paisley will all boom.

Basically if your company serves an area near a busy mainline station brace yourself, start training and investing in a larger fleet and look into acquiring larger storage space.

Don't worry about the effect the rise in fuel costs will have on your business as your competitors will all be paying the same high price as my mate Merve explained to me once "the cost is the same for us all and no matter how high or low the cost's, we all have to pass it on the same" wise words.

I'm booking an appointment with the bank to seek investment, faced with the "facts" how can they turn us down?

Have your say: visit our blog. Click here.

April 2008

At last business is beginning to pick up for us all. quotes given months ago are now being accepted and business is looking good for the whole Easter and half term period.

The chancellor did us no favours in the budget but did we expect any?

Go green is the flavour of the month but as far as I can see no business can or should survive if it is wasteful!

Good luck to Pickfords after being bought (subject to contract) by a "TEAM"  group company to roars of approval from staff who are pleased to be released from the Sirva shackles. Keep a look out for Pickfords crews on the road with a smile on their face!

One Man And A Van Ltd re-branding as "One Worldwide" will never receive the same headlines but is a major development in the companies ambitious plans.

February 2008 January 2008

We are hearing reports that Pickfords is running into financial difficulties, Pickfords the leading name in UK removals with a reputation second to none, having problems is a very loud wake up call to our whole industry.

I would guess the slowdown in the domestic and commercial moving market along with storage competition from the major self storage operators in the UK  and recent increases in operating costs has caused this dire situation.

Reports state the group may be sold as a whole but I believe the company's assets ie storage facilities in popular areas will be "cherry picked" by its competitors.

Pickfords and the other major removals brands rely on their long standing reputation for reliability and good standing to attract their customers and the news breaking this week will exacerbate their trading difficulties.

I wonder how many long term storage customers the company currently serve will now relocate to self storage units! and how many small removals companies who currently act as Pickfords agents will find it difficult having accounts settled forcing them into difficulties.

Lots of pinstripes are "worried" about the financial markets and the price of houses and the stocks, they and the people they advise may hold.
My god it's taken them long enough too twig on to what we could have told them four months ago!

The UK government has now implemented the totally useless and costly HIPS legislation, forcing  more crap on us all, for what?

We still cant guarantee a house sale to be a "done deal" even on moving day! dodgy experienced buyers can still take the piss out of genuine sellers goodwill.

We will all have a bad time in the removals industry in early 2008 but don't worry,
Like Northern rock "Our"  UK government help and support our companies in the same way!

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